A Surge

The poll predicted that Mr Karzai would win 44% of the vote—a strong lead over his rivals, but not the outright majority he would need to avoid a second-round run-off, provisionally set for October 1st. At the same time, IRI found that 83% of Afghans thought their country needed to change direction. A surge of support for Mr Karzai’s main challenger, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, a champion of the Tajik minority, hints at what sort of change they would like. Unlike Mr Karzai, he has campaigned across the country, rallying Afghans and offering them ideas—some good, some bad—on how to solve their problems. In fact in Afghanistan’s main cities, the election has fuelled lively debate, for which Dr Abdullah, and two lesser challengers, Ramazan Bashardost and Ashraf Ghani, deserve credit. Yet even without massive rigging in favour of Mr Karzai—which was expected in Pushtun areas where independent observers will fear to he was considered likeliest to win. His reputation, though fading, as a peaceable Pushtun, a national unifier and, above all, as the likeliest guarantor of the foreigners’ shining promise to Afghanistan may best explain this.